HEVAL5120 – Modeling in economic evaluation I

Schedule, syllabus and examination date

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Course content

The course aims to introduce the basic principles of deterministic and probabilistic modelling in economic evaluation of health programmes (decision trees, Markov models). You will learn to know how to structure a decision problem and how to estimate the incremental cost-effectiveness (ICER), cost-effectiveness acceptability curves (CEACs) and cost-effectiveness frontiers (CEAFs). The estimations will be carried out in excel.

Learning outcome


You will gain knowledge of:

  • Theoretical foundation of modelling
  • Types of models
  • Development of decision trees and Markov models
  • Probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA)
  • Interpret the results of PSA


You will learn how to:

  • Define a decision problem and translate it into  a decision analytic model
  • Develop decision trees in excel
  • Develop Markov models in excel
  • Undertake deterministic sensitivity analysis
  • Use Bayes’ theorem for probability revision
  • Undertake probabilistic sensitivity analysis in excel and VBA (macros)
  • Use results from clinical trials and other data sources as inputs in models

General competence

You will be able to:

  • Understand and evaluate different types of economic analyses
  • Perform decision analysis


Students who are admitted to study programmes at UiO must each semester register which courses and exams they wish to sign up for in Studentweb.

If you are not already enrolled as a student at UiO, please see our information about admission requirements and procedures.


Self study, lectures, computer exercises with laptops

Access to teaching

A student who has completed compulsory instruction and coursework and has had these approved, is not entitled to repeat that instruction and coursework. A student who has been admitted to a course, but who has not completed compulsory instruction and coursework or had these approved, is entitled to repeat that instruction and coursework, depending on available capacity.


The course may have mandatory home exercises that need to be approved before the final exam. No grades are given for the home exercises.

A final written Home exam (8 hours).


The Board at the University of Oslo has decided to introduce detailed guidelines for all examinations, which take place at the University. The description of the grading should be clear and transparent. This is done to ensure alignment between learning outcomes, assignments, and grading. The Faculty of Medicine has developed a web page with information regarding exams and the grading procedures (norwegian version).

Submit assignments in Inspera

You submit your assignment in the digital examination system Inspera. Read about how to submit your assignment.

Use of sources and citation

You should familiarize yourself with the rules that apply to the use of sources and citations. If you violate the rules, you may be suspected of cheating/attempted cheating.

Examination support material

No examination support material is allowed.

Language of examination

For students at Eu-HEM: English

For students at HEPAM: The problem set will be given in English. Answers can be given in Norwegian, Swedish, Danish or in English.

Grading scale

Grades are awarded on a scale from A to F, where A is the best grade and F is a fail. Read more about the grading system.

Explanations and appeals

Resit an examination

For HEPMA students:

For Eu-HEM students:

An EU-hem student cannot present her or himself for the examination in a course more than two times. There will be held re-sits for EU-hem students who have failed an exam or who have legitimate absence (usually illness) in January and August. If you are entitled to a re-sit you must contact the student advisor via email no longer than one week after the result of the exam has been published.

Withdrawal from an examination

It is possible to take the exam up to 3 times. If you withdraw from the exam after the deadline or during the exam, this will be counted as an examination attempt.

Special examination arrangements

Application form, deadline and requirements for special examination arrangements.


The course is subject to continuous evaluation. At regular intervals we also ask students to participate in a more comprehensive evaluation.

Facts about this course






Every spring


Every spring

Teaching language