MAT4770 – Stochastic Modelling in Energy and Commodity Markets

Schedule, syllabus and examination date

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Exams after the reopening

As a general rule, exams will be conducted without physical attendance in the autumn of 2021, even after the reopening. See the semester page for information about the form of examination in your course. See also more information about examination at the MN Faculty in 2021.

Course content

The course gives an introduction to dynamic stochastic models for prices in commodity and energy markets. Classical factor models based on Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes are analyzed, and extended to so-called continuous-time autoregressive processes with a moving average. The stochastic processes are driven by Brownian motion and simple jump processes to model sudden price changes (spikes), which are characteristic for some energy markets (for example, power). In the course we also look at dynamic modelling of temperature, wind and sun, and analyze these in the context of energy markets, but also the independent markets for weather products. Particular case here is the seasonal variations. Further pricing techniques for forward contracts on commodity and energy are developed, in addition to relevant derivatives as "spread" and quanto options. The theory on pricing measures and risk premium is presented, and the term structure of volatility analyzed (the so-called Samuelson effect).

The course will focus on making the models and analysis operational in practical applications. Techniques for estimation and calibration are presented, in addition to methods for numerical simulation.

Learning outcome

After completing the course you will:

  • know and understand the classical stochastic models for commodity and energy markets
  • know how to establish forward prices based on factor models in the spot market
  • know how to estimate and simulate the models, and apply these in different markets, like the market for weather derivatives
  • understand important notions as pricing measure, market price of risk and the risk premium
  • know how to analyze and price important derivatives in commodity and energy markets.

Admission to the course

Students admitted at UiO must apply for courses in Studentweb. Students enrolled in other Master's Degree Programmes can, on application, be admitted to the course if this is cleared by their own study programme.

Nordic citizens and applicants residing in the Nordic countries may apply to take this course as a single course student.

If you are not already enrolled as a student at UiO, please see our information about admission requirements and procedures for international applicants.

Overlapping courses

Teaching

4 hours of lectures/exercises per week throughout the semester.

The course may be taught in Norwegian if the lecturer and all students at the first lecture agree to it.

Examination

Final written exam or final oral exam, which counts 100 % towards the final grade.

The form of examination will be announced by the lecturer by 15 October/15 March for the autumn semester and the spring semester respectively.

This course has 1 mandatory assignment that must be approved before you can sit the final exam.

It will also be counted as one of the three attempts to sit the exam for this course, if you sit the exam for one of the following courses: MAT9770 – Stochastic Modelling in Energy and Commodity Markets

Examination support material

No examination support material is allowed.

Language of examination

Courses taught in English will only offer the exam paper in English. You may write your examination paper in Norwegian, Swedish, Danish or English.

Grading scale

Grades are awarded on a scale from A to F, where A is the best grade and F is a fail. Read more about the grading system.

Resit an examination

This course offers both postponed and resit of examination. Read more:

Special examination arrangements, use of sources, explanations and appeals

See more about examinations at UiO

Last updated from FS (Common Student System) Dec. 6, 2021 4:26:38 AM

Facts about this course

Credits
10
Level
Master
Teaching
Spring
Examination
Spring
Teaching language
English